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The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity.
Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date.
In particular, in 2001-03, the trough in payroll employment occurred 21 months after the NBER trough date.
In 2009, the NBER trough date is 6 months before the trough in payroll employment.
The committee places less emphasis on monthly data series for industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales, because these refer to particular sectors of the economy.
Movements in these series can provide useful additional information when the broader measures are ambiguous about the date of the monthly peak or trough.
The trough dates for these indicators are: Macroeconomic Advisers' monthly GDP (June) The Stock-Watson index of monthly GDP (June) Their index of monthly GDI (July) An average of their two indexes of monthly GDP and GDI (June) Real manufacturing and trade sales (June) Index of Industrial Production (June) Real personal income less transfers (October) Aggregate hours of work in the total economy (October) Payroll survey employment (December) Household survey employment (December) The committee concluded that the choice of June 2009 as the trough month for economic activity was consistent with the later trough months in the labor-market indicators–aggregate hours and employment–for two reasons.
First, the strong growth of quarterly real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter was inconsistent with designating any month in the fourth quarter as the trough month.
The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.
Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.
Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973--82, both of which lasted 16 months.Tags: Adult Dating, affair dating, sex dating