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Mild content warning for murder, rape, and existential horror.
Errors in Part III are probably my own, not the book’s.] I.
Pneumatic tubes will deliver purchases from stores.
“A man or woman unable to walk ten miles at a stretch will be regarded as a weakling.” Where Watkins is right, he is generally listing a cool technology slightly beyond what was available to his time and predicting we will have it. Yet this is Hanson’s example of accurate futurology.
For example, we can reliably predict the future cost changes for devices such as batteries or solar cells, as such costs tend to follow a power law of the cumulative device production (Nagy et al 2013).
As another example, recently a set of a thousand published technology forecasts were collected and scored for accuracy, by comparing the forecasted date of a technology milestone with its actual date.
Everything Tolkien wrote is Tolkienesque in a non-tautological sense.
This isn’t meant to denounce either writer as boring. They produced a range of brilliant and diverse ideas.But there was a hard-to-define and very consistent ethos at the foundation of both. Robin Hanson is more like himself than anybody else I know. ” sometime around 2008 after reading his blog Overcoming Bias.He’s obviously brilliant – a Ph D in economics, a masters in physics, work for DARPA, Lockheed, NASA, George Mason, and the Future of Humanity Institute. Since then he’s influenced my thinking more than almost anyone else I’ve ever read.But his greatest aptitude is in being really, really Hansonian. When I heard he was writing a book, I was – well, I couldn’t even imagine a book by Robin Hanson.Bryan Caplan describes it as well as anybody: When the typical economist tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is ‘Eh, maybe.’ Then I forget about it. When you read a thousand word blog post by Robin Hanson, you have to sit down and think about it and wait for it to digest and try not to lose too much sleep worrying about it. I have now read Age Of Em (website)and it is indeed something.Yet participants in the Xanadu hypertext project in which I was involved from 1984 to 1993 correctly anticipated many key aspects of the Web […] Such examples show that one can use basic theory to anticipate key elements of distant future environments, both physical and social, but also that forecasters do not tend to be much rewarded for such efforts, either culturally or materially.Tags: Adult Dating, affair dating, sex dating